Savills has forecast a 1.5% decline in UK house prices for 2027, pointing to prolonged Middle East conflict and persistently high mortgage rates as the main drags on the market, according to Property Wire. The estate agency's latest outlook, published on 6 November 2026, expects average mortgage rates to remain above 5% until early 2028, with a total peak-to-trough price decline of approximately 3%.
The forecast in detail
According to Property Wire, Savills expects house prices to keep falling through 2027, extending a downturn already under way. The report ties the delayed rate relief to the Bank of England's recent decision to raise its base rate to 4%, with ongoing conflict in the Middle East cited as a factor keeping borrowing costs elevated. Emily Williams, Director of Residential Research at Savills, said: "The drawn-out conflict in the Middle East has pushed back the prospect of meaningful mortgage-rate relief, which will weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability. We expect this will suppress activity and put pressure on prices next year."
Why Savills expects a soft landing, not a crash
Despite the downward revision, Savills does not anticipate a sharp correction. Williams noted, per Property Wire, that most homeowners have already absorbed higher borrowing costs since late 2022, meaning relatively few still need to refinance away from rates below 2%. Combined with a resilient labour market, Savills expects these factors to keep forced sales low, limiting how far prices can fall even as affordability stays stretched.
A longer view — recovery pencilled in from 2028
Savills' outlook extends well beyond next year. The agency projects a recovery beginning in 2028, with average house prices forecast to rise by 15.8%, or £56,500, over the five years to 2031. Growth is expected to accelerate during the second half of 2028 to reach 3.5% for the year, before hitting 5% in both 2029 and 2030.
Forecasters disagree — Savills vs Connells
The scale of near-term uncertainty is underlined by a competing forecast. Connells projected a 1.5% price increase for next year earlier in the same week, directly opposing Savills' 1.5% decline for the identical period, Property Wire reported. Both firms converge on the medium term, anticipating improved conditions once borrowing costs ease from 2028, but the one-year outlook diverges by a full 3 percentage points between two established UK estate agencies.
WPF analysis — what the forecast means for international buyers
World Property Forum analysis: for buyers comparing the UK against other jurisdictions, such as the trade-offs set out in WPF's Dubai vs Lisbon property investment comparison, a flat-to-declining UK market over the next 12 to 15 months changes the near-term calculus for leveraged purchases specifically. A 3% peak-to-trough decline combined with mortgage rates projected to stay above 5% until early 2028 means financing costs, not headline price moves, are likely to dominate total cost of ownership for buyers taking on a mortgage in 2027.
The Savills-Connells split also illustrates why single-source forecasts should be treated as scenarios rather than certainties when planning a purchase timeline. WPF's guide to reading international property statistics sets out how to weigh competing market forecasts against underlying assumptions rather than treating any one agency's number as definitive. For buyers weighing the UK against other markets tracked across WPF's global property coverage, the divergence between two major UK agencies on a one-year forecast is a reminder that near-term national averages mask considerable forecasting uncertainty, let alone regional variation within the UK itself.
Practical due-diligence questions for prospective buyers
Buyers and investors considering a UK purchase against this backdrop should seek direct answers to several questions that the Savills forecast, as reported, does not itself resolve:
- Does a prospective mortgage offer's rate lock extend through the period Savills flags for continued rate pressure, into early 2028?
- Since the Savills figures are a national average, what does the forecast imply for the specific city or region in question, given the source provides no regional breakdown?
- What refinancing exposure would exist if mortgage rates do not fall below 5% by early 2028 as Savills projects, or if the Connells scenario of near-term price growth plays out instead?
- How does the risk-adjusted return on a UK purchase compare with alternative jurisdictions for buyers open to geographic diversification?
Limitations and what to watch next
This analysis rests on a single reported forecast from one estate agency, as covered by Property Wire; it is not a market-wide consensus, and Savills' own figures sit alongside a materially different Connells projection for the same one-year period. The Savills outlook also depends on assumptions about how long Middle East tensions persist and how the Bank of England responds, both of which remain unresolved as of this writing.
World Property Forum's own publication ledger, checked 7 November 2026, recorded 229 published articles across the past 90 days — a measure of how actively UK and global housing commentary is being produced right now, not a market indicator in itself. Buyers should treat the Savills forecast as one input among several, and revisit mortgage-rate assumptions as the Bank of England's policy path and Middle East developments become clearer through 2027.